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A new poll from the Siena Research Institute shows New York Governor Kathy Hochul leading Congresswoman Elise Stefanik by 20 points in a hypothetical 2026 gubernatorial matchup. The poll, released on Tuesday (November 18), indicates Hochul has a 52% to 32% advantage over Stefanik. This lead, however, has decreased from a 25-point margin in September.
Governor Hochul also holds a commanding lead in the Democratic primary, with a 56% to 16% advantage over Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado. Despite a slight drop in her favorability and job approval ratings, Hochul remains strong among Democratic voters. According to Siena pollster Steven Greenberg, "Hochul has a commanding lead over Delgado among all Democrats, as well as upstaters and downstaters, men and women, liberals and moderates."
Stefanik, who recently announced her candidacy, is considered the frontrunner in the Republican primary. Her campaign has framed the race as a referendum on Hochul’s leadership, accusing the governor of making New York less safe and more expensive. Hochul has countered by highlighting Stefanik's loyalty to President Donald Trump, suggesting it could negatively impact New Yorkers.
The poll also reveals that 42% of voters are prepared to re-elect Hochul, while 48% prefer "someone else." Among those preferring another candidate, 53% want a Republican, and 30% want another Democrat. The survey, conducted from November 10-12, included over 800 registered voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.